“We are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are.” – Daniel Kahneman
Confidence ≠ Correctness
Up until the 1920s, many astronomers were confident that the Milky Way was the entire universe. Till Edwin Hubble corrected this view, which has since expanded the universe to an unfathomable number of galaxies.
Another example, from my life… I was very confident in my last job that my role was secure and it was not in the best interest of the company to fire me. Until I stood corrected and was fired anyways.
Unfortunately, unlike the Milky Way correctness, where our imagination expanded, in my case, my problems expanded.
Just like we validate a hypothesis through research we also need tools to examine confidence and detect the errors corroding correctness.
Confidence is helpful only if it has enough room to accommodate correctness.
Introspection Amplifies Biases
Bias is a systematic error in our thinking. Introspection is thinking… deeply.
For example, when entrepreneurship becomes autotelic — it is its own reward, introspection about building a “successful” company shifts from how to do good… to how to look good.
Introspection without structure, or without questioning popular beliefs, can reinforce bias. This happens because bias, by nature, is mostly invisible from the inside.
Worse, introspection can turn bias into confidence.
Thinking Errors Need Thinking Models
Together, confidence and introspection when not filtered through an objective lens, can powerfully lead our lives astray.
The antidote is skills: learned thinking models that help you,
- Identify the right distance to maintain from beliefs
- Replace introspection with structured reflection, and
- Let the brain consult the body before it commits.
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Eibira = Objective Lens
Eibira is a mirror that offers a structured outside view for an inside problem on systematic thinking errors.
You bring a decision, pause just enough, identify the right regrets, and gain clarity before you act.
Eibira helps you see what your certainty is hiding, or as Kahneman puts it, an outside observer who is more likely to detect our errors than we are.
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