Probability Vs Possibility

Have you ever been asked:

“What would you do differently today if you knew you’d die tomorrow?”

Before you continue reading the article, take a few moments to jot down your answer to the question. Go ahead, it’s an interesting exercise…

What you just did was engage in a compelling thought process that was emotional, urgent, and provocative.

And there-in lies the problem – it emphasizes “possibility thinking,” an emotional but uncertain chance that tomorrow might not come. It sounds powerful but is practically limiting, pushing us toward impulsive, short-term, panic-driven decisions.

Now, consider this question:

“What would you do differently today if you knew you’d live another 25 healthy years?”

Take a few moments to answer this question in all your honesty.

This question embodies “probability thinking.” Statistically, the likelihood you’ll pass away tomorrow is extremely low compared to decades from now.

Recognizing this doesn’t mean ignoring life’s uncertainties; rather, it gives actionable clarity, helping you invest in emotional resilience, long-term health, meaningful relationships – and a more purposeful-mindful life.

“Possibility thinking” keeps us emotionally charged but practically paralyzed. “Probability thinking” grounds us in reason, openness, and strategic long-term planning.

Why does this distinction matter?

Knowing this is important because our minds often confuse possibility with probability, leading us to “risk as feelings,” where emotional reactions dictate our decisions rather than rational assessments.

How do you know when you’re letting feelings, not facts, drive your sense of risk?

It’s a tricky process.

Download the pdf slides to keep this understanding handy. Get your copy here.