Nikhil Kabadi

Our minds often confuse possibility with probability, leading us to “risk as feelings,” where emotional reactions dictate our decisions rather than rational assessments.

Risk as feelings is a tricky thought process. It’s a subtle game our minds play to conserve energy:

Rather than asking:

“What is the statistical probability this will happen?”

We subconsciously ask:

“How does this make me feel?”

And then use that feeling as a proxy for the actual risk level.

Two examples from everyday work to drive home this point:

Example 1: Avoiding Feedback

Rationally, you might think: “What’s the probability this feedback will damage the relationship?”

Emotionally, you ask yourself: “How uncomfortable will this conversation make me feel?”

Fear of conflict or being disliked leads you to either avoid honest feedback or dilute it – despite transparency benefiting everyone involved.

Example 2: Hesitation to Negotiate

Rationally, you might think: “What’s the probability the customer will walk away if I negotiate on price?”

Emotionally, however, you ask: “How anxious does losing this deal make me feel?”

This fear and insecurity push you into immediate concessions or unnecessary discounts, even though the value clearly justifies the original price.

This thought pattern reveals a crucial insight: probability vs possibility thinking shapes our feelings, those feelings shape our perception of risk, and our perception of risk is deeply influenced by biases.

Not everyone is influenced by the same biases because risks “feel” different – what’s probable for one might merely be a possibility for another. Yet biased we all are…

Curious about how biases silently influence decisions or what are the seven deadly biases that derail 80% of our decisions?

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This article is one among a four-part series on biases and how to interrupt their influence to make better decisions. Here are the remaining three articles:

The starting point: The role of emotional possibility rather than rational probability.

Understanding risks as feelings. This article.

Introducing bias as a theory-induced blindness.

Finally, the seven biases – a small subset with a substantial impact.